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Japhy Grant's avatar

This is a provocative read but both the endgame scenarios assume a limited ecosystem of one or two AGI models. Rather than s Singularity like this, I think we’re headed to a Multiplicity of models operating in a Cambrian explosion like era of hyper competitive co-evolution.

We could see narrow AI systems collaborating in ways that lead to emergent ASI-like behavior. It seems unlikely the US would declare one AI firm the “winner” and nationalize data centers into one model as happens in these scenarios, especially under the current administration.

These scenarios are pretty clean and assume nation states will have the most control over AI development, but that’s a huge assumption. I think we are far more likely to see multiple differently aligned systems of different scales all competing with each other for compute, with varying levels of human input.

It’s what we are seeing now with one model overtaking another on a regular basis and a diversification of AI rather than consolidation, which is what these futures seem to anticipate.

What a bracing read!

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bruno's avatar

So, what can I, a simple human, software developer from a third world country, do?

Sit down and cry? I don't have enough power or money to influence anything or anyone, I study every day but I will never compete with an AI. How can I and my family survive this?

Just lie down and die?

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