Curious how this is affected by the current administration's deportations of researchers. I (kind of) doubt they'll literally deport enough people to make a huge difference on its own, but surely the news about this could make the marginal non-American genius want to move somewhere else to avoid the risk of being thrown in a prison in Louisiana for weeks on end?
I anticipate the response will be "not enough before 2027, and anyway this still doesn't change the compute advantage." Which, fair.
Reading through this some more makes me think that a Xi taking the AI race as his number one concern would invade Taiwan tomorrow. Heck he could maybe even get away with pretty limited resistance after buying a couple billion dollars worth of Trump coin
I'm a bit surprised that a "China invades Taiwan in 2025-2026" scenario is not included. Seems like all bets would be off then.
1st August 2027 but yes should be factored in.
What about how the US will likely spend more of its compute on inference given a more robust cloud and services sector?
Curious how this is affected by the current administration's deportations of researchers. I (kind of) doubt they'll literally deport enough people to make a huge difference on its own, but surely the news about this could make the marginal non-American genius want to move somewhere else to avoid the risk of being thrown in a prison in Louisiana for weeks on end?
On the ground in a hybrid academic-industry role, it’s happened already
I anticipate the response will be "not enough before 2027, and anyway this still doesn't change the compute advantage." Which, fair.
Reading through this some more makes me think that a Xi taking the AI race as his number one concern would invade Taiwan tomorrow. Heck he could maybe even get away with pretty limited resistance after buying a couple billion dollars worth of Trump coin