AI Futures Project

Scenario Scrutiny for AI Policy

A call for concrete stress-testing of AI policy proposals

Oct 28 • 

Joshua Turner

 and 

Daniel Kokotajlo

48

11

How an AI company CEO could quietly take over the world

If the future is to hinge on AI, it stands to reason that AI company CEOs are in a good position to usurp power. This didn’t quite happen in our AI 2027…

Oct 21 • 

Alex Kastner

77

14

September 2025

The world's first frontier AI regulation is surprisingly thoughtful: the EU's Code of Practice

Only the US can make us ready for AGI, but Europe just made us readier.

Sep 22 • 

Miles Kodama

54

9

July 2025

AI As Profoundly Abnormal Technology

....

Jul 24 • 

Scott Alexander

221

40

We aren't worried about misalignment as self-fulfilling prophecy

...

Jul 18 • 

Scott Alexander

, 

Daniel Kokotajlo

, 

Thomas Larsen

, and 

Eli Lifland

107

19

June 2025

What you can do about AI 2027

How to steer toward a positive AGI future

Jun 28 • 

Eli Lifland

149

27

May 2025

Slow corporations as an intuition pump for AI R&D automation

If slower employees would be much worse wouldn't automated faster ones be much better?

May 19 • 

Ryan Greenblatt

 and 

Eli Lifland

35

3

Make The Prompt Public

The right to know what an AI is doing

May 17 • 

Scott Alexander

 and 

Daniel Kokotajlo

139

17

Making sense of OpenAI's models

Plus: GPT-5's secret identity

May 1 • 

Scott Alexander

 and 

Romeo Dean

103

23

April 2025

Why America Wins

In a word: compute

Apr 24 • 

Scott Alexander

 and 

Romeo Dean

147

53

AI 2027: Media, Reactions, Criticism

We recognize our supporters and respond to our critics

Apr 23 • 

Scott Alexander

112

25

Training AGI in Secret would be Unsafe and Unethical

Bad for loss of control risks, bad for concentration of power risks

Apr 17 • 

Daniel Kokotajlo

63

13